Next Tuesday, the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) will discuss its 'Preparations For EU Exit', with a report from its latest Brexit Monitor.
At a meeting in September last year, the GMCA agreed "that a 'no deal' Brexit be opposed outright and where all other options have been exhausted, the GMCA would support a People's Vote", the report states, further adding in December that "the trajectory of forecast economic growth will be lower than compared to today's arrangements (i.e. current trading relationships with the EU)"...
The report gives the following estimates...
* Under a no deal scenario, the Greater Manchester economic growth would
be £8.2billion smaller (around £2,730 per resident);
* Under the average FTA [free trade agreement] scenario, the Greater Manchester economic growth would be £5.1billion smaller (around £1,680 per resident)
* Under the EEA-type scenario, the Greater Manchester economic growth would be £1.2billion smaller (around £410 per resident)
* Under the White Paper scenario, the Greater Manchester economic growth would be £0.4billion smaller (around £150 per resident), and with the additional impact of non-tariff barriers...would be £1.9billion smaller (around £640 per resident).
Behind the scenes, there has been urgent 'civil contingency planning' via the Greater Manchester Resilience Forum (GMRF), and the report states that "Appropriate Command, Control and Communications (C3) structures are planned to be in place ahead of and running through the relevant period. These are designed utilising the concept of 'dealing with the unusual in the usual way'."
Planning exercises have taken place "running through scenarios designed from a month before exit, in the immediate days after exit and through to two months after exit... to understand the civil contingencies risks and potential impacts, stress-test planning assumptions and C3 systems and to enhanced joint situational awareness and assessment of risks".
The GMCA has compiled a register of risks associated with major infrastructure projects, while the NHS has also been calculating risks... "Although there has been no requirement for local NHS to stockpile any medicines or medical supplies, work has been going on in the Health Sector locally, working with the NHS and Department nationally to consider risks and issues" the report states, adding that "The most significant risk area identified is the reliance on EU workers in the health & social care sector".
Indeed, the report notes that the GM economy relies on 65,000 EU nationals working within the sectors Distribution, Hotels, and Restaurants (24,000), Banking and Finance (13,000), Manufacturing and Construction (15,000) and Public Admin, Education and Health (13,000).
The GMCA also notes, with understatement, that "Given the changeable and fast moving nature of the national Brexit position, Members will recognise by the time of the meeting the situation may well be different and have evolved from the time of writing"...
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